By Grant McCandless
As a lifelong avid Seminoles fan, the 2013 National Championship-winning squad was the best team of my lifetime. They were dominant, and many experts picked them to be just as dominant this year, but the newest incarnation of the Seminoles is now getting written off as a team that is too flawed to win it all. College Football, and more importantly the Seminoles are not like they were 15-20 years ago. I remember watching in the late ‘90s when Snoop Minnis, Anquan Boldin and Peter Warrick were hauling in passes from Chris Weinke. I remember vaguely Warrick Dunn slicing up defenses and setting records on the ground. I am too young to remember the Charlie Ward years, but I have watched enough video to know that I would have been really, really excited about it.
I also remember the darker years. The ones where FSU would always blow some game that they were supposed to win, and the quarterbacks who presided after Chris Weinke’s “Reign of Terror” who would continually let the team down. There was notorious blowhard Chris Rix, the boring Drew Weatherford, Xavier Lee who never lived up to his talent, and then the overrated Christian Ponder.
During those years, my season was left to hinge on a couple players (mostly on the defensive side of the ball) who would dominate and make the plays that reminded that you that even in their worst years, the Seminoles still fielded some of the best talent in the country. We had Darnell Dockett at DT, one of my two favorite ‘Noles of all time who was named the NCAA freshman of the year and All-ACC three years in a row.
We had promising running backs like Greg Jones, who was great to watch; and then the combination of Leon Washington and Lorenzo Booker who made big plays and broke off chunks of yardage. The highlight of the team was that it was always anchored by stud linebackers including AJ Nicholson, Ernie Sims, Geno Hayes, and Lawrence Timmons, who always made fans excited to see the defense come on the field to lay some hard hits.
There were also immense talents who could have greatly improved the team but were out for one reason or another. Shutdown corner Antonio Cromartie was on pace to be the best corner in the country before he tore his ACL before his junior year; Cromartie then went pro before he was fully recovered. Similarly Greg Reid looked like one of the most dynamic talents in the NCAA but then got kicked out. Preston Parker got kicked out too, Craphonso Thorpe was too fast for the aforementioned Chris Rix to throw him a proper ball, and Myron Rolle (brother of Samari and Antrell) was a great talent but was just too good at other things, like being a Rhodes Scholar and studying medicine in Oxford, England. Needless to say, there was some bad luck, some bright spots and some unfulfilled talent during between 2001-2010.
Everyone saw the culture starting to change two years ago when Florida State won the Orange Bowl against a Northern Illinois team that just flat out didn’t have the same athletes that the ‘Noles did. The culture switch was turned around for good last year when FSU blew out every opponent until the national title game but still managed an undefeated National Championship season to win both the first and the last championships during the BCS era.
But something has changed this year. Every Florida State game you hear the announcers talking about it and they have seemed to figure it out. It’s the offensive line, running game, passing game, and defense…otherwise known as every aspect of the football team (other than the kicker, but FSU might have the best kicker on the planet, not just college football on their team.)
In reality, it is all based on a couple very small differences on the offensive side of the ball and two enormous–to the point where they are continuously understated–differences on defense.
Below is a list of the starters and the backups for the Seminoles rosters from this year and last year. As a key: bold means that the player was elected as All-ACC and an asterisk means the player was voted in some form or another as a 1st or 2nd team All-American. A “+” followed by a number means that the player was injured, and the following number is the number of games, S means they are out for the year. Additionally the edge is given and is emboldened if the difference is drastic. Mostly, there is no edge given if there is a change in player unless their improvement has been monumental.
2013 FSU Edge 2014 Seminoles
QB: Jameis Winston* Jameis Winston
RB1 Devonta Freeman 2013 Karlos Williams +1
RB2 James Wilder Jr 2013 Mario Pender +1
RB3 Karlos Williams 2013 Dalvin Cook
WR1 Rashad Greene 14 Rashad Greene +1
WR2 Kelvin Benjamin 2013 Bobo Wilson/Travis Rudolph
WR3 Kenny Shaw 2013 Kermit Whitfield
WR4 Christian Green Christian Green
TE Nick O’Leary Nick O’Leary
LT Cameron Erving* Cameron Erving
LG Josue Mattias Josue Mattias
C Bryan Stork* 2013 Austin Barron +S
RG Tre Jackson Tre Jackson
RT Bobby Hart Bobby Hart
DE Christian Jones 2013 Demarcus Walker
DT Timmy Jernigan * Eddie Goldman
DT Jacobbi McDaniel Nile Lawrence-Stample +S
DE Mario Edwards Jr. 14 Mario Edwards Jr +1
LOLB Reggie Northrup Reggie Northrup
MLB Telvin Smith* 2013 EJ Levenberry
ROLB Terrance Smith 14 Terrance Smith +1
CB LaMarcus Joyner* 2013 PJ Williams
CB Ronald Darby Ronald Darby
Nickel Nate Andrews Nate Andrews
Safety Jalen Ramsey Jalen Ramsey
Safety Terrence Brooks 2013 Tyler Hunter
Matthew Thomas (Suspended 5 gm) Ukeme Eligwe+1
Backup LB EJ Levenberry Chris Casher
Backup DB P.J. Williams LaMarcus Brutus
Backup LB Ukeme Eligwe Desmond Hollin
Backup DL Dan Hicks Lorenzo Featherston
Backup DL Chris Casher Ro’Derrick Hoskins
Backup DL Demonte McCallister Derrick Nnadi
Backup DL Eddie Goldman Jacob Pugh
Backup DL Nile Lawrence-Stample Derrick Mitchell Jr.
Backup DB Keelin Smith Trey Marshall +2
Injuries: (Tyler Hunter)
The Offense
The pundits concerns about the offense are grossly overstated. Is there a difference in the offensive line? Yes. But he only actually downgrade is that last years’ Rimington award winner Bryan Stork is on to the Patriots and Austin Barron, his backup, is injured for the season. I think that in the long run, the new center, Ryan Hoefield will improve and the offensive line will be completely fine. There is too much talent and experience along the rest of the line for them to struggle, and they will sort themselves out.
The Florida State running backs were also better last year, but that doesn’t really matter all that much. With FSU undefeated at this point in the season Karlos Williams, Dalvin Cook and the rest will continue to improve and will not perform as poorly as they have up to this point. “Wild and Free” the combination of Devonta Freeman and James Wilder Jr, was a better and more experienced combination, but the running game has enough malleability this year to not lose games.
Of course, the reason the running game won’t have that responsibility is because they don’t have to. And although Jameis Winston is talked about ad nauseam on ESPN, to watch him play, you can see that he is actually a better passer and overall player than he was last year. He is the most dominant player in college football, but statistical regression to the mean is something that everyone could have expected while the offense got acclimated to each other.
While we are on the passing game, every fan knew that it was going to be a process to find another second receiver. Rashad Greene is one of the great FSU receivers in a long line of them, but no other returning player had ever had significant playing time before. Kelvin Benjamin was dominant last year and Kenny Shaw was one of the most reliable third options in the country. The good news is that Bobo Wilson and Travis Rudolph now have a battle to see who will emerge in Kelvin Benjamin’s place. I believe Rudolph will be the number two option and Wilson will be the slot receiver, although if the young players continue to mature, Kermit Whitfield and Ermon Lane could end up making their presence felt in the second half of the season.
So how could Florida State have one of the best scoring offenses in the country and have dropped to 21st this year? And how can you tell me that the running game will be ok when they are 106th in the country? Well that is easy, and the answer is the defense.
The Defense
The defense is why the offense isn’t as potent and their inability to tackle or make big plays is why their running game can’t get going. To be honest, given the expectations, this is the worst FSU defense I have seen in my lifetime, and not all of it is their fault. Because the Seminoles defense is forcing less turnovers (2.5 per game in 2013 compared to 1.9 per game this year) the offense is getting the ball less often. And because the defense is allowing long drives, the offense is getting worse field position in addition to the opposing defenses being well rested. This combination causes them to tackle better, and prohibits the FSU running game from being able to bust out the long runs that often game in the second half of games last year.
My main problem with every incarnation of football is that the “average” fan consumes it in a vacuum. If the running game does poorly then they have a bad running back, if the passing game does poorly then it’s the quarterback. What people with love for the game and/or playing experience realize is that everything is codependent on the other. The continuous battle of a football is influenced by everything else that happens on the field and one weak point, in this case the Seminoles inability to get opposing offenses quickly off the field, can cause every other aspect of the team to be less effective.
And I don’t mean to pick on this years Seminoles defense, because they have struggled with injuries, primarily on the defensive line, and that is a problem that just flat out didn’t happen last year. Having Mario Edwards Jr. and Eddie Goldman banged up throughout the year is the worst loss that they could have, because those two players and former 5 star recruits are without a doubt the best players on their defense.
Despite that caveat, injuries are not the main cause of decline from last years FSU defense to this years. Last years team was historically good. Not only did they lead the NCAA in points allowed per game with 12.1 (compared to 21.6 this year) but they also set the record for most defensive touchdowns scored by an FSU team. That is where the difference is, and it comes down to two players; sidenote- the following is not to discount how dominant Timmy Jernigan was last year because he was a beast, it’s just that Eddie Goldman is also really, really good, so the difference is almost negligible.
The first difference is All-American Safety/Cornerback/Nickle Linebacker/human swiss army knife LaMarcus Joyner. First of all, receivers were scared of running over the middle because being hit by the diminutive Joyner is not fun. But more importantly than his big hits, his speed and athleticism allowed him to make big plays both in pass coverage, in the run game and in blitzing the quarterback. There was a reason that many people considered Joyner to be the best DB in the NCAA last year and it is because he can accrue highlight tapes like this.
Telvin Smith ran a 4.41 at the combine, but he plays every play at full speed, and at many times is the fastest player on the field…at linebacker. I mentioned that Darnell Dockett was one of my top two favorite ‘Noles ever, well Telvin Smith is the other one. I have never seen another college football player play with more passion and fearlessness. This sideline to sideline speed is not limited to making tackles, it also enabled Telvin to because one of the top FSU playmakers of all time with 7 sacks, 4 INT’s, 3 FF, 5 FR and 3 defensive TD’s over his career, with almost all of that coming his senior year. Telvin Smith’s highlight tape is amazing to watch and it says more than I can about his abilities to lead this Seminole defense last year.
Quite simply, Florida State had talent all over its defense last year, but it had two of the greatest playmakers, leaders, and examples in school history, and a team can’t just replace that. If everyone on the 2013 FSU defense did their job, they could always count on either Joyner or Smith to make a big play that would either stunt the opposing teams drive or flat out change the game.
The kind of ability that Joyner and Smith displayed last year is something that is cultivated over years, and the ‘Noles have players who can eventually be that, but for that to be expected of them at the start of the year is too much. If the Seminoles are going to win another National Championship this year, the playmaking ability will have to start showing itself as early as this Thursday’s game against Louisville. The good news is that every player on the defense has the ability to be that guy: PJ Williams and Nate Andrews have shown glimpses, and the aforementioned Eddie Goldman and Mario Edwards are among the best defensive lineman in the country. But if I’m putting money on it, my guess would be Jalen Ramsey, Ronald Darby, or Matthew Thomas.
Jalen Ramsey is a natural playmaker at safety. He is solid in every area, and he could do what Joyner did. This year he was moved to the nickel back spot in order to provide more big plays. Recently, Ramsey has started to provide pressure in the blitz and can jump routes in coverage. If Ramsey can improve and learn this new position (an admittedly difficult task) then he is in the best position to be the answer that FSU fans are looking for.
Ronald Darby is the best pro prospect in a Seminoles secondary littered with future NFL players. He is a physical corner who can also be a ball hawk. As a former 5 star recruit though, Darby is still slightly underperforming. Before the season he was my pick to be a break out star for the Seminoles but it just seems like he is a half step short of being the guy who you see all over the field. This is not a speed issue, as Darby has everything someone would want athletically, instead I think (and remember I am just a fan) that he plays with a tiny bit of hesitancy. If he can get rid of that and become a player who plays proactively, then he could be the answer.
Matthew Thomas was a player who a jumped out of my chair and cheared for when he announced he was committing to Florida State on national recruiting day. After some soul searching for how maybe I should reexamine my life if I’m cheering where some high schoolers are choosing to go to college, I decided that everyone in the south does it, and so it’s alright. That’s my logic and I’m sticking to it. Since that day when he committed as the top LB prospect in the country, everything has been cringeworthy for Thomas. First he said that he didn’t want to go to FSU anymore but was stuck because he signed his letter of intent…that was infuriating. Then he got hurt for the year in his freshman season and that was sad. Then he got suspended for the first six games this year for unspecified reasons (he was smoking pot) and that was disappointing. And now he is healthy, eligible, talented and could go one of three ways. Thomas is one of the most talented players in the country and he could either become another in a long line of great Seminoles players who have underperformed, he could progress like a normal player and likely wouldn’t be a major contributor this year…or he could show his prodigious talents and be the player who turns Florida State from a National Championship contender to a juggernaut.
Overall
The 2014 Florida State Seminoles are not the 2013 team, and they likely won’t be. That’s the bad news. The good news is that this team doesn’t necessarily have to be. If Jameis Winston stays on the field and the maturation of a young team continues at an expected pace, FSU could still win the National Championship. The problems look big, especially after almost losing a game against an above average Notre Dame team, but the fixes are much smaller than people think. If the defense can start to force three and out’s and turnovers, and someone steps up, then the rest of it will fall into place.
Diamond Bags 